Establishing the statistical relationship between population size and UCR crime rate: Its impact and implications

The fact that the volume of crime is related to the size of a jurisdiction’s population has been well established. The relationship between crime rate and population size, however, is less clear. Crime rate presents crime on a per capita basis, and is intended to adjust for population size so that comparisons can be made. In this article, the author first establishes the statistical relationship between crime rate and population size. Once established, he conducted an analysis of crime rates in jurisdictions of various sizes and in a variety of population-based strata using data obtained from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). Based on his findings, the author discusses implications for research and analysis, database management, and making jurisdictional comparisons of crime rates. D 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.